Net PMI Numbers Are Up

I cracked open my May edition of PMI Today to review the monthly statistics.  Remember, the statistics are always a month behind.  I was impressed to see PMI added 11,681 new members in March, up from 9,750 new members in February.  Upon adding the numbers to my spreadsheets, March numbers looked better than the February, in respect to net PMI membership.  Though PMI added 11,681 new members, they also lost 6,857 (down from 8,076 lost members in February). I realized the net gain was 4,824 (up from 1,674 PMI members the previous month.  So, did the PMI do anything to increase their retention rates?  Time will tell. March 2011 Totals: Active PMPs: 423,515 PMI Members: 346,730 CAPM: 13,969 PMI-RMP: 741 PgMP: 553 PMI-SP: 440

Source: PMI Today

August PMP Certification Numbers

I know what you're thinking.  Derek, why oh why do you post these PMI numbers ever month?  Where's the value? Well, I'm kind of fascinated by a theory called diffusion of innovations. It's a theory of how, why, and at what rate new ideas and technology spread through cultures.

There was a book published in 1962 by a fellow named Everett Rogers, who defined an adopter category as a way to classify individuals within a social system.  The adoption of an innovation follows an S curve when plotted over a length of time. The categories of adopters are: innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards(Rogers 1962, p. 150)

Innovators

Innovators are the first individuals to adopt an innovation. Innovators are willing to take risks, youngest in age, have the highest social class, have great financial lucidity, very social and have closest contact to scientific sources and interaction with other innovators. Risk tolerance has them adopting technologies which may ultimately fail. Financial resources help absorb these failures. (Rogers 1962 5th ed, p. 282)

Early Adopters

This is the second fastest category of individuals who adopt an innovation. These individuals have the highest degree of opinion leadership among the other adopter categories. Early adopters are typically younger in age, have a higher social status, have more financial lucidity, advanced education, and are more socially forward than late adopters. More discrete in adoption choices than innovators. Realize judicious choice of adoption will help them maintain central communication position (Rogers 1962 5th ed, p. 283).

Early Majority

Individuals in this category adopt an innovation after a varying degree of time. This time of adoption is significantly longer than the innovators and early adopters. Early Majority tend to be slower in the adoption process, have above average social status, contact with early adopters, and seldom hold positions of opinion leadership in a system (Rogers 1962 5th ed, p. 283)

Late Majority

Individuals in this category will adopt an innovation after the average member of the society. These individuals approach an innovation with a high degree of skepticism and after the majority of society has adopted the innovation. Late Majority are typically skeptical about an innovation, have below average social status, very little financial lucidity, in contact with others in late majority and early majority, very little opinion leadership.

Laggards

Individuals in this category are the last to adopt an innovation. Unlike some of the previous categories, individuals in this category show little to no opinion leadership. These individuals typically have an aversion to change-agents and tend to be advanced in age. Laggards typically tend to be focused on “traditions”, have lowest social status, lowest financial fluidity, oldest of all other adopters, in contact with only family and close friends, very little to no opinion leadership.

Certification as an Innovation

So, what does a certification have to do with innovation?  I'm trying to draw a parallel between the industry adoption of the credential compared to diffusion of innovation.  Every month I get a copy of PMI Today and I traditionally annotate data points.  I have them as far back as September 2006.

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

New PMPs (Overall)

3,714

3,713

5,344

4,718

3,985

4,630

3,687

3,965

Total Active PMPs

367,619

371,014

375,959

381,111

385,096

389,726

393,413

397,378

When I look at the data from the last 4 years, the certification velocity has remained relatively consistent. (send me an email if you want the spreadsheet) For the month of August, those with the PMP certification increased to 3,965. There are now a total of 397,378active PMPs.

The questions that I pose to you, the reader, are

Where do you think the PMP credential is on the chart listed above?

Where are we on the bell curve?

Is the PMP in the early adopter, early majority, or early stage of the late majority?

Lawfulgood PMP Level 5

After reading a blog post by Dennis Stevens, I suddenly realized one of things about the family of PMI certifications that has been bothering me.  The family of credentials does not lend itself to the Dreyfus Model.  Dennis offered really compelling arguments about what does certification imply, about people who can’t or won’t earn certifications, and what he calls tilting at windmills. The Dreyfus Skill Acquisition Model, which Dennis references, identifies five stages of competence:

Novice: Rigid adherence to taught rules or plans.  No exercise of discretionary judgment.

Advanced beginner: Limited situational perception. All aspects of work treated separately with equal importance.

Competent: Coping with crowdedness (multiple activities, accumulation of information). Some perception of actions in relation to goals. Deliberate planning. Formulates routines.

Proficient: Holistic view of situation. Prioritizes importance of aspects.  Perceives deviations from the normal pattern. Employs maxims for guidance, with meanings that adapt to the situation at hand.

Expert: Transcends reliance on rules, guidelines, and maxims. Intuitive grasp of situations based on deep, tacit understanding. Has vision of what is possible. Uses analytical approaches in new situations or in case of problems.

---

PMI currently has 5 certifications.  You don't need to be an active PMI member (currently at 318,421) to hold one of these certification.  To get one of these credentials, you need to meet some educational and experience requirements and then pass a written exam.  Only the Program Management Professional requires a panel review.

Certification	Total Active
Project Management Professional (PMP)	389,726
Certified Associate Project Manager (CAPM)	11,785
PMI Risk Management Professional (PMI-RPM)	393
PMI Scheduling Professional (PMI-SP)	327
Program Management Professional (PgMP)	436

What is missing here is some continuity between the credentials and something that indicates the level of expertise.  There is a difference between a PMP who met the minimum experience requirements and one who has been practicing in the profession for 20 years.  Would calling someone a Lawfulgood PMP level 5 with a 20 wisdom and 30 charisma help?  I'm not proposing we pull credential titles form Dungeon and Dragons, but rather something that will give the laymen an idea of experience.

Do I have an example?  I absolutely do!  Check out the International Consortium of Agile (ICAgile).  They are proposing a 3-phased, skill-based, certification.  If PMI borrowed from this model, the CAPM would be part of phase 1 (Associate), RPM, SP, and PMP would be part of phase 2 (Professional), and PgMP would be phase 3 (Expert).  PMI wouldn't necessarily have to mimic this framework exactly, but do you see how it puts it all into context?  If there would be a mighty uproar by the PMP community, suddenly being demoted to associate level, you could identify them as a PMP-1 or PMP-2, depending on which knowledge area(s) they have been certified in.

Any thoughts or comments?

May PMP Certification Numbers Are In

Every month I get a copy of PMI Today and I annotate 3 data points: New PMP® for the month, new PMPs year-to-date (YTD), and total number of active PMPs. This month was a little interesting because PMI stopped reporting the New PMP monthly numbers and the YTD total, opting to report just the overall number of active credential holders. This is not a problem since I have been tracking the PMP data for over a year.

The trend continues, with the new number of PMPs in May totaling 3,985. Year-To-Date total is 23,581. There are a total of 385,096 active PMPs.

The current trend predicts PMI will hit 400,000 active PMP credential holders this year.

	December (2009)	January	February	March	April	May
New PMPs (Monthly)	5,403	3,714	3,713	5,344	4,718	3,985
New PMPs (YTD)		3,714	7,429	12,779	19,596	23,581
Total Active PMPs	361,238	367,619	371,014	375,959	381,111	385,096

Though I'm still worried we're rapidly reaching a tipping point, I want to congratulate those 3,985 out there who passed the exam. It's no cakewalk and I recognize your efforts and achievement.

Of those 3,985, I've been in contact with several who passed the exam with the aid of my new product PMPrepFlashcards.com. Yes, I know, gratuitous plug.

The new data PMI did include in this months PMI Today was very enlightening.  It's about the other credentials.  As of May 2010, there were 385,096 active PMP credential holders.  In comparison, there were only 11,458 Certified Associates in Project Management (CAPMs)®, 421 Program Management Professionals (PgMPs)®, 357 PMI Risk Management Professionals (PMI-RMPs)®, and 320 PMI Scheduling Professionals (PMI-SPs)®.

With the industry dominance of the PMP® credential, it makes me question if these other certifications have the staying power.  Is there a demand for them or are they just a possible revenue stream for PMI?  Will there other certifications for the other knowledge areas?  Is Certified Scope Professional and Certified Communications Professional not far behind?  If I would PMI, I would go for it.  You don't know what the market will find valuable unless you try it.

Passing the Test of All Tests (PMI Audit)

He who pulls the sword from the stone shall be a PMP

So, you just completed all of the paperwork, detailing all of your applicable education and work experience.  PMI has given you the green light to schedule a date to take your PMP® exam.  But what if you are audited?  Wouldn't that just suck!?

Well, you met the requirements.  PMI didn't say anything so you must be in the clear.  Time to sign up to actually take the exam.  Through a link on the PMI website, you pick a testing center in your area and find a time that will work.  You enter your credit card number and click submit.  Surprise!  Instead of getting a confirmation page, saying thank you for paying for the exam, you get a "you've been audited" screen.  What the hell!?

So, as soon as they have your money, you go into audit limbo.  The audit process has started and there are only two ways out.  [1] You withdrawal your application to take the exam.  You will get "most" of your money back. [2] You complete your audit, submit your paperwork, and PMI allows you to take the exam.

With all of the figurative threats PMI publishes about not embellishing your experience, you better not have done it!  I would compare this to going to a job interview.  Your potential employer says they like what they see.  You can continue on in the interview process, as long as you take your resume back to each of the employers you've listed and get them to sign a document agreeing you actually did the work.

What if your application is audited?

PMI answers a group of questions about this. First things first, stay calm. If you didn't lie on your application, you have little to worry about.  You should have honestly detailed all of your work experience during the application process. For every project you submitted, you're going to be sent an audit report in PDF format. (see the 3 graphics to the left)

Page 1:  What you entered during the application process.

audit_page1

Page 2:  Stakeholder information and a line for them to sign, agreeing you did the work that you say you did.

audit_page2

Page 3:  PMI Address information.

audit_page3

The pain of original signatures

For every one of these packets, you're going to need 2 original signatures.  You can have a colleague, peer, client or sponsor who has intimate knowledge of the project sign the audit.  You will then put the signed audit into an envelope (addressed to PMI), seal it, and have the same person sign the sealed envelope seam.  Once you get all of your packets signed, sealed, and signed, you mail all of the envelopes to PMI.

The actual audit by PMI will only take about a week. You will receive an email notifying you if you pass or fail.

What is my advise?

Go into the application process with the expectation of being audited.  Identify the people you want signatures from while doing your application.  Identify a backup (signature) for each project.  I spent more time tracking people down and getting signatures then I did completing the original application.  I had 20 signatures I had to get.  When budgeting the cost of the PMP exam, don't forget the cost of dinners and drinks for people who you need to track down to sign your audits.  I had to manage my audit process like I would a mini-project.

Is it all worth it?

From my personal and professional experience? Yes. Though I do believe the ever-increasing number of PMPs in the market may commoditize the certification, it's still in high demand. Regardless if you're a good PM, if you have a PMP® or CAPM®, there is an assumption you're a good Project Manager.  Because I was audited, I feel everyone should suffer the same scrutiny.  Perhaps there will be fewer paper PMPs, if they knew up front they would be audited.

Thank you to Joseph Gruber for verifying the current audit process.  He also suffered through a PMI audit.  I remember the PMI audit process being a little different, when I went though it back in 2006.  His personal experience was very helpful.

Did I miss anything specific you wanted to know?  Just leave a comment.

(Yes, that's a picture of me pulling the sword from the stone)