Risk is Like the Five Stages of Grief

The PMBoK 4th Edition offers several risk related definitions.  I saw a trend that was very similar to the Kübler-Ross model, commonly known as the five stages of grief.  The following are a few actual risk related definitions from the PMBoK.  I hope you find them useful.

PMBoK 4th Edition

Risk - An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on a project's objectives.

Risk Avoidance - A risk response planning technique for a threat that creates changes to the project management plan that are meant to either eliminate the risk or to protect the project objectives from its impact.

Risk Mitigation - A risk response planning technique associated with threats that seeks to reduce the probability of occurrence or impact of a risk to below an acceptable threshold.

Risk Tolerance - The degree, amount, or volume of risk that an organization or individual with withstand.

Risk Transference - A risk response planning technique that shifts the impact of a threat to a third party, together with ownership of the response.

Risk Acceptance - A risk response planning technique that indicates that the project team has decided not to change the project management plan to deal with a risk, or is unable to identify any other suitable response strategy.

Kübler-Ross model

1. Denial

2. Anger

3. Bargaining

4. Depression

5. Acceptance

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Formulas To Remember For The PMP Exam

Use this formula on the PMP exam to calculate the variance of an activity

I think back to when I sat for the PMP exam and remember taking the first few minutes to quickly write down the following formulas.  It was my cheat sheet.  There was enough to think about for the next few hours and worrying if I could remember some key formulas was not one of them.  So, here is a bit of advice.  If you're preparing[1] to take the PMP exam, MEMORIZE these formulas.  The exam won't come right out and ask you to identify the correct formula for a variance of an activity. Rather, it will offer a question like:  Your current activity was pessimistically estimated at 65 hours and optimistically estimated at 40 hours.  What is the variance of the activity?  (you can use this formula for both time and cost) You can see how knowing the formula is going to make you or break you on this question.

Do yourself a favor.  Make flash cards, get a tattoo, it doesn't matter.  Commit these formulas to memory and you'll save yourself some pain and suffering (and a few points on the exam).

The Formulas

Acronym

Title

Formula

PERT

Program Evaluation and Review Technique

Use this formula on the PMP exam to calculate PERT

P = Pessimistic Estimate M = Most Likely Estimate O = Optimistic Estimate

Standard Deviation of Activity

Use this formula on the PMP exam to calculate standard deviation of an activity

Variance of an Activity

Use this formula on the PMP exam to calculate the variance of an activity

Total Float

LS - ES or LF - EF

Communications Channels

[N(N-1)] / 2

CV

Cost Variance

EV - AC

SV

Schedule Variance

EV - PV

CPI

Cost Performance Index

EV / AC

SPI

Schedule Performance Index

EV / PV

EAC

Estimate at Completion

BAC / CPI

AC + ETC

AC + (BAC - EV)

ETC

Estimate to Complete

ETC = EAC - AC

VAC

Variance at Completion

BAC - EAC

CPI

c

Cumulative Cost Performance Index

Σ

EV /

Σ

AC

TCPI

To-Complete Performance Index

Use this formula on the PMP exam to calculate TCPI

Free PM Templates and Worksheets Page Updated

Though I haven't uploaded any new templates today, I did fix some broken links. Thank you PJ for bringing it to my attention.  The Free PM Templates and Worksheets page has been fixed.  I understand the page should be redesigned so it's easier to see what is available.  Thank you for those who let me know when they find an issue on the site.  Feel free to just add a comment to a page.  I'll get it!

Regards,

Derek

Free Project Charter Template

Project Charter Template

How many times have you started working on a project and don't even have formal authorization for that project to exist?  A project charter is a document issued by the project initiator or sponsor that formally authorizes the existence of the project, and provides the project manager with the authority to apply organizational resources to project activities.  Using this template will put all the cards on the table.  Knowing answers to key areas before you begin will save you time and money. This document includes areas for project overview, authority and milestones, organization, and points of contact.

On your current project, do you know the project oversight authority?  Do you know your critical success factors? Have you documented all of your project roles and responsibilities?  If you used this template, you would increase your chances for success by documenting the basics up front.

MS Word

[Click here to download the free Project Charter Template]

Free Project Initiation Worksheet

Project Initiation Worksheet

When you are about to initiate a new project, you should capture the basics of project information.  If you don't, you're walking into a minefield.  Even before you write up a charter, you should be able to answer the following: Problem (or Opportunity) Statement -Describe the business reason(s) for initiating the project, specifically stating the key business problem or opportunity

Project Description - Describe the approach the project will use to address the business problem

Project Goals and Objectives - Describe the business goals and objectives of the project. Refine the goals and objectives stated in the Business Case (which you should also have)

Project Scope (Requirements) - Describe the project scope. The scope defines project limits and identifies the products and/or services delivered by the project. The scope establishes the boundaries of the project and should describe products and/or services that are outside of the project scope.

Critical Success Factors -Describe the factors or characteristics that are deemed critical to the success of a project, such that, in their absence the project will fail.

Assumptions - Describe any project assumptions related to business, technology, resources, scope, expectations, or schedules.

Constraints - Describe any project constraints being imposed in areas such as schedule, budget, resources, products to be reused, technology to be employed, products to be acquired, and interfaces to other products. List the project constraints based on the current knowledge today.

If you can articulate these seven areas, you've proven you have at least a basic understanding of what you're up against.  If you can not, you better go back and find the answers.  It is a lot cheaper to answer a question when the project is still initiating, compared to deep in executing.

[Click here to download a free Project Initiation Worksheet]

Free Critical Path and Float Calculation Worksheet

Critical Path Float Calculation Worksheet

The number one search on the Critical Path website is for a Critical Path and Float worksheet.  Though you should be using software to calculate a critical path, if it is mission critical, it is important to understand the concept for the PMP exam. Rather then go into the specifics on how to calculate the critical path and float in this post, I'll merely say a free worksheet template  and PowerPoint presentation are available and you can download them at any time. (see links below)

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Remember the Critical Path tells you the activities that can not slip a day without increasing the total duration of the project or moving the project completion date. It is the longest path of logically related activities through the network which cannot slip without impacting the total project duration, termed zero float.

Free Meeting Minutes Template

Click here to download the Meeting Minutes Template

Back in March, I wrote a post about helpful tips for running a meeting.  With it was a free copy of my meeting minutes template.  Here is a brief refresher when hosting a meeting: [1] Write out the purpose of the meeting with actionable events in mind. e.g. “Provide an updated status, identifying risks and opportunities, and identify new action items.”

[2] Identify your attendee list but only keep those you can map to the actionable events listed in step 1.  There is a difference between an attendee list and a communications distribution list.

[3] Create an agenda.  Do not ever arrange a meeting without a written agenda.  Your meeting will suffer scope creep in the worst possible way.

[4] Identify who will run the meeting and who will take notes.  It should not be the same person.

[5] Ensure discussion points align to the agenda.  If they don’t, recommend taking the topic to another forum.

[6] End the meeting by having the note taker read back the discussion points and the understood action items.

[7] Send out the meeting minutes within one to two days.

Please note I don't recommend using this for a Daily Scrum or Stand Up Meeting.

Free COTS Package Evaluation Template

COTS Product Evaluation Template

At my last assignment, I was asked to compare 3 vendors and make a commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) product recommendation to the client.  The client knew their budget and products they wanted evaluated.  They didn't know if the product capabilities were all marketing hype or if the products would indeed meet their needs. When doing a product evaluation, I tell the customer they must help me do the following  [1] List the specific business requirement(s) that must be satisfied by the COTS package.[2] List the specific business data or information requirement(s) that the COTS package will need to support. [3] List the strategic and performance plans that must be met by the COTS package.  [4] List the practices and processes the COTS package will compliment.

By detailing the information above, it demonstrates the requester thoroughly understands their needs.

The customer must then answer 2 critical questions that will impact the total cost of the implementation:

[1] Does the COTS package need to be modified to work with current practices and processes?

[2] Do practices and processes have to be modified to work with the COTS package?

Some companies believe if you throw enough money at something, you can fix a problem.  Spending a lot of money on a product to "fix" a bad business process just means you spent a lot of money and still have a bad business process.

The last thing you do is create a capability matrix to do a side-by-side comparison of products.  Don't paint yourself into a corner!  Make sure you complete the Package Evaluation first so the details are available for others to review later.  Give your stakeholders the facts. Enjoy this free copy of my COTS Package Evaluation Template.